Middlebury leans heavily Democratic by roughly 48 points: about 74% of voters vote Democratic and 26% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Vermont did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 65% of adults in Middlebury typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Middlebury, ~48% vote Democratic, ~17% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Middlebury compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Middlebury is the most Democratic-leaning.
Middlebury runs about 15 points more Democratic than Vermont as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Middlebury. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+55) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+16), a spread of about 39 points.
Why Middlebury leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Middlebury, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 63% of adults in Middlebury hold a bachelor's degree, about 34 points above the U.S. average of 28%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 48% of adults in Middlebury have never been married, above 97% of cities.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Middlebury, VT sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Middlebury looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Middlebury is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Middlebury have completed high school, above 86% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- East Middlebury, VT D+22
- Weybridge Hill, VT D+14
- Cornwall, VT D+19
- Weybridge, VT D+23
- West Cornwall, VT D+16
- West Salisbury, VT R+2
- Salisbury, VT R+3
- Ripton, VT D+27
- New Haven, VT D+13
- Cream Hill, VT Even
Cities with Similar Populations
- Wilmer, AL R+77
- Tanaina, AK R+32
- Robinson, IL R+41
- Roxborough Park, CO R+13
- Waterloo, NY R+25
- Kirby, TX D+20
- Alexandria, IN R+45
- Newtonville, MA D+63
- Maurice, LA R+69
- Midland, NC R+36
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Vermont Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. VT did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.