Nolan County leans heavily Republican by roughly 46 points: about 27% of voters vote Democratic and 73% Republican.
About 62% of adults in Nolan County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Nolan County, ~17% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Nolan County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Nolan County leans more Republican than 1 of 7 neighbors.
Nolan County runs about 33 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Nolan County. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+79) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+40), a spread of about 39 points.
Why Nolan County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Nolan County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Nolan County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 61%, well above the Texas average of 35%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Nolan County sits in the bottom quarter (about 16%, below 81% of counties).
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Nolan County, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Nolan County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Nolan County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 49%, about 5 points below the Texas average of 54%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Fisher County, TX R+67
- Mitchell County, TX R+50
- Scurry County, TX R+66
- Taylor County, TX R+36
- Coke County, TX R+72
- Jones County, TX R+47
- Stonewall County, TX R+68
- Runnels County, TX R+64
- Sterling County, TX R+80
- Callahan County, TX R+69
Counties with Similar Populations
- Pike County, IL R+57
- Reeves County, TX R+33
- Renville County, MN R+49
- Karnes County, TX R+35
- McKenzie County, ND R+56
- Nelson County, VA R+22
- Jeff Davis County, GA R+57
- Clarke County, VA R+18
- Hale County, AL D+13
- LaSalle Parish, LA R+71
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.