Karnes County leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.
About 54% of adults in Karnes County typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Karnes County, ~17% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~46% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Karnes County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Karnes County leans more Republican than 1 of 8 neighbors.
Karnes County runs about 22 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Karnes County. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+60) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+24), a spread of about 36 points.
Why Karnes County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Karnes County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 15% of adults in Karnes County hold a bachelor's degree, about 11 points below the Texas average of 26%.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; Karnes County, TX sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Karnes County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Karnes County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 47%, about 6 points below the Texas average of 54%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Wilson County, TX R+50
- Goliad County, TX R+60
- Bee County, TX R+22
- DeWitt County, TX R+49
- Live Oak County, TX R+61
- Atascosa County, TX R+37
- Gonzales County, TX R+41
- McMullen County, TX R+59
- Victoria County, TX R+28
- Guadalupe County, TX R+23
Counties with Similar Populations
- McKenzie County, ND R+56
- Renville County, MN R+49
- Nolan County, TX R+47
- Pike County, IL R+57
- Reeves County, TX R+33
- Falls Church City, VA D+45
- Nelson County, VA R+22
- Pendleton County, KY R+62
- Jeff Davis County, GA R+57
- Clarke County, VA R+18
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.