North Dakota leans Republican by roughly 30 points: about 35% of voters vote Democratic and 65% Republican.
About 72% of adults in North Dakota typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in North Dakota, ~25% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How North Dakota compares
Among states within 500 miles, North Dakota leans more Republican than 3 of 4 neighbors.
Politics vary noticeably by county within North Dakota. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+59) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+11), a spread of about 48 points.
Why North Dakota leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per state to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for North Dakota, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 78% of residents in North Dakota drive to work alone, above 90% of states.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a rural land-use pattern tend to turn out at a higher rate, as North Dakota does.
Why turnout in North Dakota looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 94% of adults in North Dakota have completed high school, above 90% of states. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby States
States with Similar Populations
- Alaska Even
- District of Columbia D+80
- South Dakota R+29
- Vermont D+13
- Wyoming R+41
- Delaware D+17
- Montana R+20
- Rhode Island D+17
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from North Dakota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.