Vermont leans slightly Democratic by roughly 14 points: about 57% of voters vote Democratic and 43% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Vermont did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 77% of adults in Vermont typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Vermont, ~44% vote Democratic, ~33% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Vermont compares
Among states within 500 miles, Vermont leans more Democratic than 4 of 10 neighbors.
Politics vary noticeably by county within Vermont. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+25) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+17), a spread of about 42 points.
Why Vermont leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per state to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Vermont, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 45% of adults in Vermont hold a bachelor's degree, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Vermont sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Vermont looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Vermont is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 74% of households in Vermont own their home, above 90% of states. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 95% of adults in Vermont have completed high school, in the top fraction of states. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby States
- New Hampshire D+6
- Massachusetts D+26
- Maine Even
- Rhode Island D+17
- New York D+16
- New Jersey D+11
- Pennsylvania Even
- Delaware D+17
- Maryland D+33
- District of Columbia D+80
States with Similar Populations
- District of Columbia D+80
- Wyoming R+41
- Alaska Even
- North Dakota R+30
- South Dakota R+29
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Vermont Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Vermont did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.