Oak Harbor is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 68% of adults in Oak Harbor typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Oak Harbor, ~33% vote Democratic, ~35% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Oak Harbor compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Oak Harbor leans more Republican than 34 of 53 neighbors.
Oak Harbor runs about 23 points more Republican than Washington as a whole. Washington leans Democratic overall, while Oak Harbor is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Oak Harbor. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+6) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+14), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Oak Harbor leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Oak Harbor, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Oak Harbor votes against the grain of Washington. Washington leans Democratic overall, while Oak Harbor runs about 23 points more Republican.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Oak Harbor, WA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Oak Harbor looks the way it does
Turnout in Oak Harbor sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Penn Cove Park, WA R+9
- Dewey, WA R+7
- Prairie Center, WA D+12
- Coupeville, WA D+19
- La Conner, WA D+25
- Rexville, WA D+9
- Camano Island, WA D+6
- Anacortes, WA D+21
- Richardson, WA D+55
- Big Lake, WA D+3
Cities with Similar Populations
- Burke, VA D+33
- Cedar Falls, IA D+4
- Hampton, GA D+42
- Hamburg, NY R+4
- Cleburne, TX R+47
- Tupelo, MS R+9
- Walla Walla, WA D+2
- Gillette, WY R+63
- Maplewood, MN D+24
- Redmond, OR R+14
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Washington Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.