Old Church leans heavily Republican by roughly 50 points: about 25% of voters vote Democratic and 75% Republican.
About 90% of adults in Old Church typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Old Church, ~22% vote Democratic, ~67% Republican, and ~11% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Old Church compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Old Church is the most Republican-leaning.
Old Church runs about 55 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Old Church is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Old Church leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Old Church, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Old Church votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Old Church runs about 55 points more Republican. Car-dependent areas vote Republican, and about 85% of residents in Old Church drive to work alone, above 81% of cities.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Old Church, VA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Old Church looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Old Church is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 73%, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 92% of households in Old Church own their home, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in Old Church have completed high school, above 91% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Tunstall, VA R+42
- Manquin, VA R+41
- King William, VA R+41
- Walkerton, VA R+36
- Aylett, VA R+42
- Lanesville, VA R+32
- Etna Mills, VA R+35
- Quinton, VA R+30
- Upshaw, VA R+34
- New Kent, VA R+29
Cities with Similar Populations
- High Island, TX R+58
- Yellowtail, MT R+28
- Jeddo, AL R+73
- Dillsboro, NC R+35
- Red Lane, WY R+71
- Moran, WY D+15
- Redoak, OH R+62
- Sandy Hollow-Escondidas, TX R+69
- Morgantown, MS R+54
- Inglenook, CA D+34
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.