Onley leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Onley typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Onley, ~32% vote Democratic, ~49% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Onley compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Onley leans more Republican than 33 of 59 neighbors.
Onley runs about 26 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Onley is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Onley. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+28) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+10), a spread of about 18 points.
Why Onley leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Onley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Onley votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Onley runs about 26 points more Republican.
Cholesterol-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high cholesterol-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Onley, VA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cholesterol screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Onley looks the way it does
Turnout in Onley sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Savageville, VA R+24
- Locustville, VA R+17
- Onancock, VA R+12
- Accomac, VA R+12
- Melfa, VA R+15
- Chesconessex, VA R+34
- Greenbush, VA R+3
- Keller, VA D+4
- Wachapreague, VA R+22
Cities with Similar Populations
- Ethel, MS R+34
- Dennis, MS R+81
- Faulkner, MD R+37
- Savoy, TX R+72
- Dumas, MS R+89
- Harwick, PA R+18
- Huntington Bay, NY R+2
- Le Roy, MN R+35
- Wolcott, VT R+9
- Athena, OR R+60
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.