Paineville leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 75% of adults in Paineville typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Paineville, ~23% vote Democratic, ~52% Republican, and ~25% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Paineville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Paineville leans more Republican than 37 of 52 neighbors.
Paineville runs about 43 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Paineville is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Paineville. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+43) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+30), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Paineville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Paineville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Paineville votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Paineville runs about 43 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 78% of households in Paineville are family households, above 86% of cities.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Paineville, VA sits above the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Paineville looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Paineville is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 66%, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Maplewood, VA R+44
- Jetersville, VA R+44
- Gills, VA R+30
- Crewe, VA R+18
- Burkeville, VA Even
- Denaro, VA R+45
- Truxillo, VA R+44
- Rice, VA R+12
- Amelia Court House, VA R+39
- Spainville, VA R+34
Cities with Similar Populations
- Plum Island, MA D+21
- Fittstown, OK R+71
- Hazelton, ND R+77
- Jupiter Island, FL R+30
- Mitchell, OR R+52
- Blackburn, MO R+66
- Kinkora Heights, PA R+46
- Millwood, KS R+54
- Bass, KY R+77
- Croton, MI R+47
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.