Paradise leans heavily Republican by roughly 44 points: about 28% of voters vote Democratic and 72% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Paradise typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Paradise, ~14% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~49% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Paradise compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Paradise leans more Republican than 2 of 5 neighbors.
Paradise runs about 38 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Paradise. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+58) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+38), a spread of about 19 points.
Why Paradise leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Paradise, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. Fewer than 1% of residents in Paradise live in densely developed areas, about 38 points below the Arizona average of 39%.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Paradise, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Paradise looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Paradise is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 4% of homes in Paradise have more than one occupant per room, above 82% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Portal, AZ R+39
- Rodeo, NM R+55
- San Simon, AZ R+54
- Sunizona, AZ R+41
- Animas, NM R+55
- Cotton City, NM R+55
- Dos Cabezas, AZ R+45
- Elfrida, AZ R+33
- Bowie, AZ R+58
- Kansas Settlement, AZ R+41
Cities with Similar Populations
- Oak Park, PA R+44
- Round Bottom, WV R+64
- Noyo, CA D+32
- Indian Falls, CA R+6
- Sealy Springs, AL R+69
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.