Phoenix is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Phoenix typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Phoenix, ~41% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Phoenix compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Phoenix sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 16 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 3 leaning the other way.
Phoenix runs about 13 points more Republican than Oregon as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Phoenix. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+18) and the north side runs the most Republican (R+7), a spread of about 25 points.
Why Phoenix leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Phoenix. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Phoenix, OR sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Phoenix looks the way it does
Turnout in Phoenix sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Talent, OR D+28
- Medford, OR Even
- Table Rock, OR R+11
- Jacksonville, OR R+6
- Central Point, OR R+21
- Ashland, OR D+50
- Ruch, OR R+16
- White City, OR R+23
- Eagle Point, OR R+30
- Lakecreek, OR R+17
Cities with Similar Populations
- Medical Lake, WA R+25
- Lebanon, IL R+13
- Olmito, TX R+10
- Martins Ferry, OH R+30
- Salyersville, KY R+66
- Lawton, MI R+22
- Hartland, MI R+25
- Somers, NY D+7
- Clyde, TX R+66
- West Point, GA R+16
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Oregon Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.