Saginaw leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 59% of adults in Saginaw typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Saginaw, ~24% vote Democratic, ~35% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Saginaw compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Saginaw leans more Republican than 26 of 70 neighbors.
Saginaw runs about 6 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Saginaw. The southwest side is the most split-leaning (R+26) and the southeast side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 25 points.
Why Saginaw leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Saginaw, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Saginaw votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 93%, far above the Texas average of 35%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Saginaw, TX sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Saginaw looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Saginaw is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 30% of households in Saginaw rent, above 83% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Blue Mound, TX R+19
- Sansom Park, TX R+9
- Lake Worth, TX R+19
- Naval Air Station JRB, TX R+15
- River Oaks, TX R+12
- Haltom City, TX R+12
- Haslet, TX R+33
- Watauga, TX R+20
- Keller, TX R+20
- Lakeside, TX R+46
Cities with Similar Populations
- Waverly, MI D+25
- Blackfoot, ID R+55
- Plainview, TX R+40
- North Kingstown, RI D+13
- Kaukauna, WI R+24
- Munster, IN D+6
- King George, VA R+23
- Zachary, LA Even
- Crofton, MD D+26
- Conover, NC R+39
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.