Saginaw leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 67% of adults in Saginaw typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Saginaw, ~27% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Saginaw compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Saginaw leans more Republican than 15 of 37 neighbors.
Saginaw runs about 37 points more Republican than Washington as a whole. Washington leans Democratic overall, while Saginaw is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Saginaw. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+36) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+17), a spread of about 18 points.
Why Saginaw leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Saginaw, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Saginaw votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 21%, well below the Washington average of 41%). Here a high share of family households outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Saginaw sits in the bottom quarter (about 7%, below 97% of cities). Saginaw runs against the grain of Washington, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; Saginaw, WA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Saginaw looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 92% of households in Saginaw own their home, about 19 points above the Washington average of 73%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Malone, WA R+35
- South Elma, WA R+34
- Elma, WA R+24
- Porter, WA R+36
- Mccleary, WA R+20
- Satsop, WA R+35
- Brady, WA R+26
- Hillgrove, WA R+18
- Montesano, WA R+13
- Oakville, WA R+23
Cities with Similar Populations
- Lanier, GA R+56
- Rankin, IL R+59
- Hope, NM R+74
- New Munster, WI R+34
- Hickory Withe, TN R+46
- Houstonia, MO R+68
- New Hope, TX R+48
- Medusa, NY R+17
- Fairfield Center, IN R+59
- Ofelia, AL R+64
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Washington Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.