San Miguel leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 56% of adults in San Miguel typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in San Miguel, ~23% vote Democratic, ~33% Republican, and ~44% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How San Miguel compares
Among cities within 25 miles, San Miguel leans more Republican than 4 of 18 neighbors.
San Miguel runs about 38 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while San Miguel is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within San Miguel. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+45) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+12), a spread of about 33 points.
Why San Miguel leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for San Miguel, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
San Miguel votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 25%, far below the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 82% of households in San Miguel are family households, above 92% of cities. San Miguel runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; San Miguel, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in San Miguel looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 36% of households in San Miguel rent, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 8% of homes in San Miguel have more than one occupant per room, above 95% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- San Lawrence Terrace, CA R+48
- Wellsona, CA R+38
- Paso Robles, CA R+32
- El Paso de Robles, CA R+2
- Whitley Gardens, CA R+50
- Templeton, CA R+18
- Parkfield, CA R+40
- Klau, CA R+19
- Bradley, CA R+36
- Shandon, CA R+29
Cities with Similar Populations
- McArthur, OH R+57
- Jefferson, NC R+49
- Roaring Spring, PA R+56
- Scott City, KS R+64
- Woodlyn, PA D+17
- Crystal City, MO R+38
- Osage, IA R+29
- Brillion, WI R+38
- Robbins, IL D+77
- Jermyn, PA R+13
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.