Santa Cruz leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 42% of adults in Santa Cruz typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Santa Cruz, ~18% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~58% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Santa Cruz compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Santa Cruz is the most Republican-leaning.
Politically, Santa Cruz sits close to the rest of Texas.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Santa Cruz. The west side is the most split-leaning (R+19) and the south side is the least split-leaning (R+2), a spread of about 16 points.
Why Santa Cruz leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Santa Cruz, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 87% of residents in Santa Cruz drive to work alone, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 74%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Santa Cruz sits in the bottom quarter (about 10%, below 93% of cities). A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 87% of households in Santa Cruz are family households, above 98% of cities.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Santa Cruz, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Santa Cruz looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Santa Cruz is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 39%, about 14 points below the Texas average of 54%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 57% of adults in Santa Cruz have completed high school, in the bottom fraction of cities. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Santa Cruz sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Rio Grande City, TX R+7
- Garza-Salinas II, TX R+2
- Los Ebanos, TX R+12
- Garciasville, TX R+8
- La Casita, TX R+9
- Rosita, TX R+15
- Grulla, TX R+14
- Escobares, TX R+5
- East Alto Bonito, TX R+14
Cities with Similar Populations
- Perry, AR R+66
- Stony Battery, VA R+64
- Troupsburg, NY R+66
- Evergreen, LA R+57
- Cairo, IN R+32
- Cecil, AL R+23
- Spanishburg, WV R+75
- Orange, NH R+17
- Sayner, WI R+22
- Rose Hill, AL R+87
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.