Shaver Lake leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 76% of adults in Shaver Lake typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Shaver Lake, ~30% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Shaver Lake compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Shaver Lake leans more Republican than 3 of 20 neighbors.
Shaver Lake runs about 42 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Shaver Lake is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Shaver Lake. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+44) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+4), a spread of about 40 points.
Why Shaver Lake leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Shaver Lake, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Shaver Lake votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Shaver Lake runs about 42 points more Republican.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Shaver Lake, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Shaver Lake looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 93% of households in Shaver Lake own their home, about 31 points above the California average of 62%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Shaver Lake have completed high school, above 81% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Shaver Lake Heights, CA R+12
- Pineridge, CA R+44
- Lakeshore, CA R+18
- Meadow Lakes, CA R+42
- Tollhouse, CA R+47
- Big Creek, CA R+17
- Auberry, CA R+39
- New Auberry, CA R+38
Cities with Similar Populations
- Posts, CA D+62
- Wilkinson, WV R+58
- Medina, ND R+62
- Plant, AR R+60
- Rugby, TN R+70
- Pate Hill, TN R+74
- Oak Grove, GA R+59
- Upper Meyersville, TX R+71
- Loving, OK R+75
- Cooper Landing, AK R+37
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.