South Gardiner leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Maine did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 78% of adults in South Gardiner typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in South Gardiner, ~28% vote Democratic, ~50% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How South Gardiner compares
Among cities within 25 miles, South Gardiner leans more Republican than 93 of 116 neighbors.
South Gardiner runs about 35 points more Republican than Maine as a whole. Maine leans Democratic overall, while South Gardiner is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why South Gardiner leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for South Gardiner, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
South Gardiner votes against the grain of Maine. Maine leans Democratic overall, while South Gardiner runs about 35 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 80% of households in South Gardiner are family households, above 90% of cities.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; South Gardiner, ME sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in South Gardiner looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. South Gardiner is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 62%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and more than 99% of adults in South Gardiner have completed high school, in the top fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Gardiner, ME R+16
- Pittston, ME R+31
- Libby Hill, ME R+22
- Dresden, ME R+5
- Head Tide, ME D+4
- Randolph, ME R+15
- Richmond, ME R+13
- Whitefield, ME R+27
- Farmingdale, ME D+10
- Alna Center, ME D+18
Cities with Similar Populations
- Holcomb, WV R+57
- Shennington, WI R+44
- Hoboken, NY R+39
- Patsburg, AL R+21
- Kilgore, OH R+63
- Starkville, CO R+24
- Ashby, NE R+86
- Arapahoe, CO R+74
- Weavertown, PA R+25
- Danville, LA R+35
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maine Secretary of State, Bureau of Corporations Elections and Commissions, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. ME did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.