St. Paul is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Alaska did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 57% of adults in St. Paul typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in St. Paul, ~28% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How St. Paul compares
St. Paul runs about 10 points more Democratic than Alaska as a whole.
Why St. Paul leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in St. Paul. None of them point strongly toward either party.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; St. Paul, AK sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in St. Paul looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. St. Paul is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 46%, about 14 points below the U.S. average of 60%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 43% of households in St. Paul rent, about 18 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and St. Paul sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Mekoryuk, AK D+22
- Dutch Harbor, AK D+2
- Akutan, AK D+6
- Unalaska, AK Even
- Kipnuk, AK D+18
- Tununak, AK D+22
- Toksook Bay, AK D+22
Cities with Similar Populations
- Wyman, AR R+16
- Mazie, KY R+70
- Duncanon, KY R+55
- Mount Jefferson, OH R+70
- Daisy, KY R+79
- Dairyville, CA R+45
- Millgrove, IN R+57
- Weissport, PA R+41
- Tinkerville, NH R+20
- Blunt, SD R+57
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Alaska Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. AK did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.