Surprise Valley leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 63% of adults in Surprise Valley typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Surprise Valley, ~20% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Surprise Valley compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Surprise Valley leans more Republican than 12 of 22 neighbors.
Surprise Valley runs about 52 points more Republican than Oregon as a whole. Oregon leans Democratic overall, while Surprise Valley is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Surprise Valley leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Surprise Valley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Surprise Valley votes against the grain of Oregon. Oregon leans Democratic overall, while Surprise Valley runs about 52 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and Surprise Valley sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 5%, below 80% of cities). Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Surprise Valley sits in the bottom quarter (about 14%, below 79% of cities).
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Surprise Valley, OR sits below the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in Surprise Valley looks the way it does
Turnout in Surprise Valley sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Riddle, OR R+33
- Canyonville, OR R+28
- Tri-City, OR R+40
- Myrtle Creek, OR R+33
- Dillard, OR R+46
- Days Creek, OR R+40
- Azalea, OR R+41
- Winston, OR R+37
- Glengary, OR R+52
- Quines Creek, OR R+39
Cities with Similar Populations
- Blair, KY R+73
- Gammon, AR R+26
- Eldora, NJ R+44
- White Oak, AR R+68
- Simpson, KS R+67
- Lake City, MS R+30
- Lamington, NJ R+13
- Johnsonville, IN R+62
- Whaley, TX R+61
- Pickwick Dam, TN R+72
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Oregon Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.