Tar Heel leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 68% of adults in Tar Heel typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tar Heel, ~26% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tar Heel compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tar Heel leans more Republican than 18 of 44 neighbors.
Tar Heel runs about 20 points more Republican than North Carolina as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tar Heel. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+5) and the south side runs the most Republican (R+41), a spread of about 46 points.
Why Tar Heel leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Tar Heel. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Non-English at home and voter turnout
Places with a low non-English-at-home share tend to turn out at a higher rate; Tar Heel, NC sits below the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in Tar Heel looks the way it does
Turnout in Tar Heel sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Tolarsville, NC R+13
- Dublin, NC R+38
- White Oak, NC R+22
- St. Pauls, NC R+17
- Bladenboro, NC R+37
- Richardson, NC R+48
- Elizabethtown, NC R+2
- Butters, NC R+58
- Lumberton, NC R+11
- Abbottsburg, NC R+42
Cities with Similar Populations
- West Warren, MA R+17
- Chatterton, GA R+60
- Calumet, OK R+69
- Franconia, NH D+20
- Waterloo, AL R+77
- North Bonneville, WA R+17
- Arkdale, WI R+29
- Coggon, IA R+31
- Noxen, PA R+50
- Avinger, TX R+67
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from North Carolina State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.