Tolarsville leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 64% of adults in Tolarsville typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tolarsville, ~27% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tolarsville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tolarsville leans more Republican than 15 of 50 neighbors.
Tolarsville runs about 10 points more Republican than North Carolina as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tolarsville. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+5) and the south side runs the most Republican (R+47), a spread of about 52 points.
Why Tolarsville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tolarsville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 75% of households in Tolarsville are family households, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; Tolarsville, NC sits below the national average on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Tolarsville looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Tolarsville is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- St. Pauls, NC R+17
- Tar Heel, NC R+23
- Rex, NC R+17
- White Oak, NC R+22
- Dublin, NC R+38
- Rennert, NC R+30
- Lumberton, NC R+11
- Parkton, NC R+7
- Buie, NC R+34
- Hope Mills, NC D+4
Cities with Similar Populations
- Wyalusing, PA R+49
- Olympic Valley, CA D+40
- Holiday Lakes, TX R+36
- Kermit, WV R+74
- Warrensburg, IL R+56
- Madison, NH R+3
- Hettinger, ND R+62
- Cypress Inn, TN R+77
- Bland, FL R+55
- Lewisville, ID R+75
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from North Carolina State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.