St. Pauls leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 61% of adults in St. Pauls typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in St. Pauls, ~25% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~39% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How St. Pauls compares
Among cities within 25 miles, St. Pauls leans more Republican than 21 of 48 neighbors.
St. Pauls runs about 14 points more Republican than North Carolina as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within St. Pauls. The west side is the most split-leaning (R+31) and the north side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 30 points.
Why St. Pauls leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for St. Pauls, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 11% of adults in St. Pauls hold a bachelor's degree, about 16 points below the North Carolina average of 27%.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; St. Pauls, NC sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in St. Pauls looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. St. Pauls is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 50%, about 11 points below the North Carolina average of 61%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 27% of adults in St. Pauls report food insecurity, above 93% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 76% of adults in St. Pauls have completed high school, below 95% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Tolarsville, NC R+13
- Rex, NC R+17
- Rennert, NC R+30
- Parkton, NC R+7
- Buie, NC R+34
- Lumber Bridge, NC R+11
- Tar Heel, NC R+23
- Shannon, NC R+23
- Hope Mills, NC D+4
- Lumberton, NC R+11
Cities with Similar Populations
- Watford City, ND R+69
- St. Joseph, MN R+19
- Hillsboro, TX R+30
- Laurel, FL R+20
- Effort, PA R+18
- Laughlin, NV R+21
- Canton, TX R+71
- Princeton, NC R+48
- Oak Grove, KY R+15
- Summit Park, UT D+36
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from North Carolina State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.