Tocaloma leans heavily Democratic by roughly 42 points: about 71% of voters vote Democratic and 29% Republican.
About 53% of adults in Tocaloma typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tocaloma, ~38% vote Democratic, ~15% Republican, and ~47% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tocaloma compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tocaloma leans more Democratic than 17 of 50 neighbors.
Tocaloma runs about 23 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tocaloma. The northeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+46) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+33), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Tocaloma leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tocaloma, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 42% of adults in Tocaloma hold a bachelor's degree, about 14 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Park access and Democratic lean
Places with heavy park coverage tend to lean Democratic; Tocaloma, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Tocaloma looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 59% of households in Tocaloma rent, about 34 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and Tocaloma sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Olema, CA D+43
- Nicasio, CA D+47
- Lagunitas, CA D+63
- Point Reyes Station, CA D+46
- Lagunitas-Forest Knolls, CA D+60
- Forest Knolls, CA D+60
- San Geronimo, CA D+51
- Woodacre, CA D+52
- Inverness, CA D+60
- Marshall, CA D+36
Cities with Similar Populations
- Alanreed, TX R+89
- Woolsey, AR R+42
- Sunrise, MO R+76
- Woodruff, KS R+75
- Belden, CA R+3
- Marshall, NY R+53
- Pennsville, OH R+56
- Mapes, ND R+42
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.