Nicasio leans heavily Democratic by roughly 46 points: about 73% of voters vote Democratic and 27% Republican.
About 42% of adults in Nicasio typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Nicasio, ~31% vote Democratic, ~11% Republican, and ~58% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Nicasio compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Nicasio leans more Democratic than 32 of 59 neighbors.
Nicasio runs about 26 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Why Nicasio leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Nicasio, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 58% of adults in Nicasio hold a bachelor's degree, about 29 points above the U.S. average of 28%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 35% of adults in Nicasio have never been married, above 87% of cities.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Nicasio, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Nicasio looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Nicasio is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 74%, about 14 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lagunitas-Forest Knolls, CA D+60
- Forest Knolls, CA D+60
- Lagunitas, CA D+63
- San Geronimo, CA D+51
- Tocaloma, CA D+43
- Woodacre, CA D+52
- Olema, CA D+43
- Sleepy Hollow, CA D+55
- Novato, CA D+34
- Fairfax, CA D+73
Cities with Similar Populations
- Adams, KY R+71
- Phillipston Four Corners, MA R+24
- Dublin, NY R+47
- Mills, KY R+75
- Parker Ford, PA R+12
- San Cristobal, NM D+25
- Millsboro, PA R+35
- White Bird, ID R+69
- Mecklenburg, NY D+3
- Big Water, UT R+66
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.