Tocito leans Democratic by roughly 26 points: about 63% of voters vote Democratic and 37% Republican.
About 67% of adults in Tocito typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tocito, ~42% vote Democratic, ~25% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tocito compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tocito leans more Democratic than 1 of 12 neighbors.
Tocito runs about 21 points more Democratic than New Mexico as a whole.
Why Tocito leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tocito, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 64% of adults in Tocito have never been married, far above similar-sized cities (around 26%).
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Tocito, NM sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Tocito looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Tocito is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 43%, about 15 points below the New Mexico average of 58%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Sanostee, NM D+26
- Little Water, NM D+28
- Two Grey Hills, NM D+32
- Toadlena, NM D+32
- Newcomb, NM D+35
- Sheep Springs, NM D+32
- Wheatfields, AZ D+61
- Beclabito, NM D+29
- Red Valley, AZ D+36
- Tsaile, AZ D+62
Cities with Similar Populations
- Zaneta, IA R+34
- Hill Center, NH R+9
- North Winfield, NY R+46
- Palmer, MA R+13
- Greenville Center, NY R+27
- Lippincott, PA R+51
- Loree, IN R+59
- Nisson, WA R+37
- Gladdice, TN R+65
- Apulia Station, NY R+27
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.