Toadlena leans heavily Democratic by roughly 32 points: about 66% of voters vote Democratic and 34% Republican.
About 62% of adults in Toadlena typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Toadlena, ~41% vote Democratic, ~21% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Toadlena compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Toadlena leans more Democratic than 3 of 12 neighbors.
Toadlena runs about 26 points more Democratic than New Mexico as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Toadlena. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+48) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+27), a spread of about 21 points.
Why Toadlena leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Toadlena, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 57% of adults in Toadlena have never been married, far above similar-sized cities (around 23%).
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Toadlena, NM sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Toadlena looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Toadlena is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 43%, about 15 points below the New Mexico average of 58%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 43% of adults in Toadlena report food insecurity, in the top fraction of cities. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Toadlena sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Two Grey Hills, NM D+32
- Sheep Springs, NM D+32
- Tocito, NM D+27
- Newcomb, NM D+35
- Wheatfields, AZ D+61
- Sanostee, NM D+26
- Navajo, NM D+50
- Tsaile, AZ D+62
- Little Water, NM D+28
- Tohatchi, NM D+51
Cities with Similar Populations
- Eden, CO Even
- Lake Shore, UT R+74
- Glen Cove, TX R+79
- Francis, MT R+48
- Davisville, AL D+76
- Bloomfield, OH R+70
- Newmansville, PA R+51
- Sherman, NM D+7
- Julia, WV R+61
- Marylhurst, OR D+34
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.