Toole County leans heavily Republican by roughly 44 points: about 28% of voters vote Democratic and 72% Republican.
About 82% of adults in Toole County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Toole County, ~23% vote Democratic, ~59% Republican, and ~18% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Toole County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Toole County leans more Republican than 2 of 3 neighbors.
Toole County runs about 24 points more Republican than Montana as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Toole County. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+6) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+65), a spread of about 71 points.
Why Toole County leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Toole County. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Local retail density and voter turnout
Places with dense local retail within a mile tend to turn out at a higher rate; Toole County, MT sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Nearby retail does not change how people vote; it reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Toole County looks the way it does
Turnout in Toole County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Pondera County, MT R+35
- Liberty County, MT R+56
- Glacier County, MT D+32
- Teton County, MT R+60
- Cascade County, MT R+25
- Chouteau County, MT R+24
- Hill County, MT R+23
- Flathead County, MT R+32
- Lake County, MT R+21
- Judith Basin County, MT R+62
Counties with Similar Populations
- Phillips County, KS R+68
- Wheeler County, TX R+67
- Scott County, IL R+64
- Gallatin County, IL R+60
- Dickey County, ND R+55
- Pickett County, TN R+70
- Rooks County, KS R+66
- Thayer County, NE R+61
- Beaver County, OK R+77
- Craig County, VA R+64
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Montana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.