Cascade County leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 75% of adults in Cascade County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Cascade County, ~28% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Cascade County compares
Cascade County runs about 6 points more Republican than Montana as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Cascade County. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+51) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+17), a spread of about 34 points.
Why Cascade County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Cascade County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Cascade County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 68%, far above the Montana average of 13%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Cascade County, MT sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Cascade County looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 95% of adults in Cascade County have completed high school, above 89% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Teton County, MT R+60
- Chouteau County, MT R+24
- Judith Basin County, MT R+62
- Pondera County, MT R+35
- Lewis and Clark County, MT R+7
- Meagher County, MT R+58
- Liberty County, MT R+56
- Toole County, MT R+43
- Broadwater County, MT R+54
- Jefferson County, MT R+38
Counties with Similar Populations
- Glynn County, GA R+14
- Wood County, WV R+41
- Orangeburg County, SC D+28
- Chemung County, NY R+14
- Buchanan County, MO R+23
- Orange County, TX R+59
- Crawford County, PA R+39
- Jefferson County, WI R+21
- Rockingham County, VA R+40
- Howard County, IN R+30
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Montana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.