Vail leans heavily Republican by roughly 34 points: about 33% of voters vote Democratic and 67% Republican.
About 73% of adults in Vail typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Vail, ~24% vote Democratic, ~49% Republican, and ~27% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Vail compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Vail leans more Republican than 32 of 45 neighbors.
Vail runs about 52 points more Republican than Washington as a whole. Washington leans Democratic overall, while Vail is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Vail leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Vail, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In Vail, about 97% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 24 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 11% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 22 points below the Washington average of 34%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 82% of households in Vail are family households, above 93% of cities. Vail runs against the grain of Washington, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Vail, WA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Vail looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 96% of households in Vail own their home, about 23 points above the Washington average of 73%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Rainier, WA R+26
- Yelm, WA R+20
- Tenino, WA R+13
- Kellys Korner, WA R+5
- Roy, WA R+32
- Bucoda, WA R+29
- Mckenna, WA R+29
- Nisqually Indian Community, WA D+15
- Lacey, WA D+23
- Fords Prairie, WA R+23
Cities with Similar Populations
- Ochwalkee, GA R+41
- West York, IL R+60
- Bethany, MS R+54
- Oslo, MN R+62
- Glenwood, MO R+69
- Sessoms, GA R+59
- Duplainville, WI R+8
- Parkersburg, IL R+68
- Dicksonburg, PA R+52
- West Robbin, TN R+71
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Washington Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.