Vermilion County leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 69% of adults in Vermilion County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Vermilion County, ~27% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Vermilion County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Vermilion County leans more Republican than 3 of 14 neighbors.
Vermilion County runs about 33 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Vermilion County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Vermilion County. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+21) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+53), a spread of about 75 points.
Why Vermilion County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Vermilion County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Vermilion County votes against the grain of Illinois. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Vermilion County runs about 33 points more Republican. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but Vermilion County runs against that pattern.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Vermilion County, IL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Vermilion County looks the way it does
Turnout in Vermilion County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Fountain County, IN R+58
- Warren County, IN R+58
- Vermillion County, IN R+50
- Champaign County, IL D+29
- Benton County, IN R+49
- Parke County, IN R+59
- Edgar County, IL R+50
- Ford County, IL R+40
- Montgomery County, IN R+44
- Douglas County, IL R+48
Counties with Similar Populations
- Wood County, WI R+22
- Somerset County, PA R+54
- Broomfield County, CO D+25
- Lonoke County, AR R+52
- Scioto County, OH R+47
- Lea County, NM R+50
- Raleigh County, WV R+46
- Hancock County, OH R+32
- Putnam County, FL R+42
- Kauai County, HI D+20
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.