Vermilion leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.
About 73% of adults in Vermilion typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Vermilion, ~23% vote Democratic, ~50% Republican, and ~27% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Vermilion compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Vermilion leans more Republican than 43 of 83 neighbors.
Vermilion runs about 49 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Vermilion is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Vermilion. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+48) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+31), a spread of about 16 points.
Why Vermilion leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Vermilion, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 90% of residents in Vermilion drive to work alone, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 74%. Vermilion runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; Vermilion, NY sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Vermilion looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 92% of households in Vermilion own their home, about 15 points above the New York average of 76%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- New Haven, NY R+32
- Clifford, NY R+47
- Mexico, NY R+32
- Mount Pleasant, NY R+33
- Lycoming, NY R+34
- East Palermo, NY R+48
- Shore Oaks, NY R+33
- Texas, NY R+35
- Scriba Center, NY R+31
- Maple View, NY R+36
Cities with Similar Populations
- Paoli, GA R+60
- Williston, MD R+42
- Baden, WV R+70
- Portland, OH R+68
- Spring Valley, AZ R+40
- Hemans, MI R+57
- Stiles, WI R+44
- Browntown, VA R+37
- West Rupert, VT Even
- Fronton, TX R+6
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.