11357 leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 56% of adults in 11357 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 11357, ~22% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~44% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 11357 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 11357 leans more Republican than 229 of 243 neighbors.
11357 runs about 33 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 11357 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 11357. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+36) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+11), a spread of about 24 points.
Why 11357 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 11357, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
11357 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (more than 99%, far above the New York average of 36%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts. 11357 runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 11357, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 11357 looks the way it does
Areas with low high-school completion turn out at lower rates. About 85% of adults in 11357 have completed high school, about 5 points below the U.S. average of 90%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.