12189 leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.
About 61% of adults in 12189 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12189, ~35% vote Democratic, ~26% Republican, and ~39% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12189 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12189 leans more Democratic than 30 of 51 neighbors.
12189 runs about 4 points more Democratic than New York as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 12189. The west side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+25) and the south side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+13), a spread of about 11 points.
Why 12189 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 12189, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 83% of residents in 12189 live in densely developed areas, about 47 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 40% of adults in 12189 have never been married, above 87% of zip codes.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 12189, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 12189 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 60% of households in 12189 rent, about 35 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.