23039 leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 94% of adults in 23039 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23039, ~38% vote Democratic, ~57% Republican, and ~5% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23039 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23039 leans more Republican than 8 of 16 neighbors.
23039 runs about 25 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23039 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 23039 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23039, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 83% of households in 23039 are family households, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 67%. 23039 runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 23039, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 23039 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 23039 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 76%, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 98% of households in 23039 own their home, about 23 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in 23039 have completed high school, above 91% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.