23238 leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.
About 90% of adults in 23238 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23238, ~52% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~10% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23238 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23238 leans more Democratic than 18 of 36 neighbors.
23238 runs about 10 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23238. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+33) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+14), a spread of about 46 points.
Why 23238 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23238, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 56% of adults in 23238 hold a bachelor's degree, about 28 points above the U.S. average of 28%. Dense areas vote Democratic, and 23238 sits in the top fifth on density (about 81%, above 83% of zip codes).
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 23238, VA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 23238 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 23238 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 73%, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.