23116 leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 98% of adults in 23116 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23116, ~40% vote Democratic, ~58% Republican, and ~2% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23116 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23116 leans more Republican than 25 of 30 neighbors.
23116 runs about 24 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23116 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23116. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+37) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+8), a spread of about 29 points.
Why 23116 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23116, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 80% of households in 23116 are family households, about 14 points above the U.S. average of 67%. 23116 runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; 23116, VA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in 23116 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 23116 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 76%, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 91% of households in 23116 own their home, compared to around 61% in nearby zip codes. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in 23116 have completed high school, above 81% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.