23294 leans Democratic by roughly 22 points: about 61% of voters vote Democratic and 39% Republican.
About 59% of adults in 23294 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23294, ~36% vote Democratic, ~23% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23294 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23294 leans more Democratic than 19 of 36 neighbors.
23294 runs about 16 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23294. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+37) and the north side runs the most Republican (R+3), a spread of about 39 points.
Why 23294 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23294, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 98% of residents in 23294 live in densely developed areas, about 62 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 23294 sits in the top quarter (about 38%, above 79% of zip codes). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 41% of adults in 23294 have never been married, above 89% of zip codes.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 23294, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 23294 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 62% of households in 23294 rent, about 37 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 4% of homes in 23294 have more than one occupant per room, above 80% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.