23415 is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican.
About 59% of adults in 23415 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23415, ~29% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23415 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23415 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 4 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 18 leaning the other way.
23415 runs about 8 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23415. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+9) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+11), a spread of about 20 points.
Why 23415 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 23415. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with renter-heavy households tend to turn out at a lower rate; 23415, VA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 23415 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 47% of households in 23415 rent, about 22 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 81% of adults in 23415 have completed high school, below 90% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.