23442 leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 79% of adults in 23442 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23442, ~28% vote Democratic, ~51% Republican, and ~21% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23442 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23442 leans more Republican than 15 of 22 neighbors.
23442 runs about 34 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23442 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23442. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+45) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+21), a spread of about 25 points.
Why 23442 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23442, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 90% of residents in 23442 drive to work alone, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 74%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 23442 sits in the bottom quarter (about 11%, below 91% of zip codes). 23442 runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; 23442, VA sits below the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in 23442 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 23442 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.