23407 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 14 points: about 57% of voters vote Democratic and 43% Republican.
About 54% of adults in 23407 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23407, ~31% vote Democratic, ~23% Republican, and ~46% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23407 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23407 is the most Democratic-leaning.
23407 runs about 8 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Why 23407 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23407, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 37% of adults in 23407 have never been married, well above similar-sized zip codes (around 21%).
High-school completion and voter turnout
Places with low high-school-completion share tend to turn out at a lower rate; 23407, VA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 23407 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 23407 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 23% of adults in 23407 report food insecurity, above 85% of zip codes. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 55% of adults in 23407 have completed high school, in the bottom fraction of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.