23915 leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 69% of adults in 23915 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23915, ~26% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23915 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23915 leans more Republican than 3 of 6 neighbors.
23915 runs about 31 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23915 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23915. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+41) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+23), a spread of about 19 points.
Why 23915 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23915, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
23915 votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23915 runs about 31 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and 23915 sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 6%, below 76% of zip codes). Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 23915 sits in the bottom quarter (about 15%, below 80% of zip codes).
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as 23915, VA does.
Why turnout in 23915 looks the way it does
Turnout in 23915 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.