23952 leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 61% of adults in 23952 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23952, ~23% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~39% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23952 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23952 is the most Republican-leaning.
23952 runs about 32 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23952 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 23952 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23952, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 4% of residents in 23952 live in densely developed areas, about 22 points below the Virginia average of 26%. 23952 runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; 23952, VA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in 23952 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 23952 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 23% of adults in 23952 report food insecurity, above 85% of zip codes. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 23952 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.