33803 leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 67% of adults in 33803 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 33803, ~27% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 33803 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 33803 leans more Republican than 5 of 20 neighbors.
33803 runs about 4 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 33803. The southwest side is the most split-leaning (R+27) and the north side is the least split-leaning (R+3), a spread of about 25 points.
Why 33803 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 33803, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
33803 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 89%, far above the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 33803, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 33803 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 33803 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.