33809 leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 71% of adults in 33809 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 33809, ~24% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 33809 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 33809 leans more Republican than 9 of 16 neighbors.
33809 runs about 18 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 33809. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+60) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+12), a spread of about 48 points.
Why 33809 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 33809, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
33809 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 71%, modestly above the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Non-English at home and voter turnout
Places with a low non-English-at-home share tend to turn out at a higher rate; 33809, FL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 33809 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 33809 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.