33823 leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.
About 65% of adults in 33823 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 33823, ~21% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 33823 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 33823 leans more Republican than 20 of 21 neighbors.
33823 runs about 23 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 33823. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+8) and the north side runs the most Republican (R+45), a spread of about 54 points.
Why 33823 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 33823, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
33823 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 61%, about 25 points above the U.S. average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 33823, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 33823 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 33823 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.