22802 leans slightly Republican by roughly 6 points: about 47% of voters vote Democratic and 53% Republican.
About 62% of adults in 22802 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 22802, ~29% vote Democratic, ~33% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 22802 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 22802 leans more Republican than 2 of 18 neighbors.
22802 runs about 12 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 22802. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+13) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+44), a spread of about 57 points.
Why 22802 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 22802, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
22802 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 67%, far above the Virginia average of 26%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with renter-heavy households tend to turn out at a lower rate; 22802, VA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 22802 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 22802 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 45% of households in 22802 rent, compared to around 27% in nearby zip codes. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 4% of homes in 22802 have more than one occupant per room, above 81% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.