33954 leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 84% of adults in 33954 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 33954, ~30% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~16% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 33954 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 33954 leans more Republican than 3 of 16 neighbors.
33954 runs about 15 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 33954. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+38) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+25), a spread of about 13 points.
Why 33954 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 33954, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
33954 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 92%, far above the Florida average of 57%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 74% of households in 33954 are family households, above 78% of zip codes.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; 33954, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 33954 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 33954 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 61%, below 57% of zip codes. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 91% of households in 33954 own their home, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.