38002 leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 81% of adults in 38002 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 38002, ~32% vote Democratic, ~49% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 38002 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 38002 leans more Republican than 17 of 23 neighbors.
38002 runs about 7 points more Democratic than Tennessee as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 38002. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+3) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+50), a spread of about 53 points.
Why 38002 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 38002, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 81% of households in 38002 are family households, about 14 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Cholesterol-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high cholesterol-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 38002, TN sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cholesterol screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 38002 looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 96% of adults in 38002 have completed high school, about 8 points above the Tennessee average of 88%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.