38004 leans heavily Republican by roughly 50 points: about 25% of voters vote Democratic and 75% Republican.
About 84% of adults in 38004 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 38004, ~21% vote Democratic, ~63% Republican, and ~16% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 38004 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 38004 leans more Republican than 8 of 12 neighbors.
38004 runs about 20 points more Republican than Tennessee as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 38004. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+60) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+47), a spread of about 13 points.
Why 38004 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 38004, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 79% of households in 38004 are family households, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Renting and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; 38004, TN sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 38004 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 88% of households in 38004 own their home, about 11 points above the Tennessee average of 77%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.