38054 leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 45% of adults in 38054 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 38054, ~21% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~55% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 38054 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 38054 leans more Republican than 13 of 20 neighbors.
38054 runs about 22 points more Democratic than Tennessee as a whole.
Why 38054 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 38054, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 93% of households in 38054 are family households, about 26 points above the U.S. average of 67%. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but 38054 runs against that pattern.
Never-married share, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine a never-married-heavy adult population and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as 38054, TN does.
Why turnout in 38054 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. More than 99% of households in 38054 rent, about 75 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and 38054 sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.